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Unless you’re signed up for another one in December I think this can resolve NO?

@BrendanFinan Sorry it didn’t work out. It can be an elusive quest but if you think your training can get you there you’ll get there!

@BrendanFinan I still hope you have a great race! Given your PB and recent time, and barring magical shoes or doping it seems very unlikely you could run under 3:00, but I'd be happy to eat my hat if you do.

@NicoDelon I agree. There was a point earlier this year where 3:00 or 3:10 seemed attainable, but I'm probably going to shoot for 3:30ish at Madison

@BrendanFinan With good pacing and enough rest until the race you can probably shave off 10-15’ of your PB. Kick ass!

3:34 at Chicago

@BrendanFinan are you having another go at it before the end of the year?

@NicoDelon I'll be doing one last marathon for the year in Madison, WI next month.

ATTN: Traders

This market's close date will be changed to one week before the Chicago Marathon. Please trade accordingly.

updated the resocriteria to handle chip malfunctions

injury is the x-risk of personal prediction markets

I believe in you! Do you prefer a YES bet as support or a NO get as reward if you pull it off?

@howtodowtle Thanks for the support bud! I don't care how you bet, buy what you think the true odds are. I wish I could upload more Strava data but my phone's GPS is busted

feeling optimistic about my weight loss so far and updating upwards. Weight is highly correlated with marathon speed: https://runninglevel.com/

If I get to my goal weight of 160 lb, I'd probably value YES at around 35-40%

Just registered for the Madison (WI) Marathon, so we'll have at least two attempts this year

Downgrading to 10% after a lackluster Mesa Marathon performance. Hopefully spring training goes well

Good luck!

@Alice Thanks!

The goal seems difficult, so I'm starting off on the low end of this one.