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Unfortunately resolves to NO. I measured myself at 180 lbs this morning, and due to the clause about not losing 2 lbs/week, I will not be able to weigh 160 by September.

Thanks to everyone who bet in this market, I really appreciate the info I gathered here.

@BrendanFinan Awww. Ready for round 2? Btw have you seen our Primum Non Amplifico post?

@dreev Thanks for the article, the gist of it is pretty useful. I think I will start a new Beeminder later this week at 180 lbs, and start off at a lower rate of decline.

@BrendanFinan Re: "later this week", we have another article about mitigating the risk that you keep putting off doing so!

fair value is probably closer to 33% at this point

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_poljJVKU4

Spoon - The Hardest Cut

‘The Hardest Cut’ comes from Spoon’s forthcoming album, ‘Lucifer on the Sofa,’ out Feb. 11th on Matador Records. Pre-order/save the album now: https://spoon.…

my current "true" weight is somewhere between 169 and 173. Wildly whipsawing through violent volatility

I am going to try to sell my shares so that I do not own any by the time of market resolution

Having a better month than I thought possible. Hydration is such a huge variable when you're weighing yourself

Adding a note here that if I accidentally lose weight because of injury - due to say, my arm getting eaten by a shark or woodchipper - this market resolves N/A

@BrendanFinan recommended reading on how hydration affects weight loss: https://dynomight.net/weight/

@dreev Great recommendation, thanks! This will be especially useful for my races

I'm betting yes! (Currently 47%.) If you were to publicly commit, via comment here, to a very high pledge cap, I think that would get the probability of success here well above 50%.

I'd also recommend auxiliary Beeminder goals for various healthy actions that you expect to effect your weight loss. Calories, steps, more vegetables, less sugar, gym visits, pushups, etc.

Here's a blog post about my weirdo personal strategy, for the unlikely case that you're sufficiently like me: https://blog.beeminder.com/allitimentation/

PS: I'm adding a subsidy too, just as a way to encourage getting more eyes on this.

@dreev
- ty for the subsidy, much appreciated
- the dieting strategy in your blog post doesn't really fit me, but there's a ton of value in finding hypercustomized habits that work for an individual. I might try to find some mnemonic devices that can remind me to diet
- I'm gonna continue on the default Beeminder commitment; I'll probably derail to the $90 commitment at some point during this market duration. I'm pretty opposed in general to paying for recurring software subscriptions