Oppenheimer is a 2023 biographical drama film written and directed by Christopher Nolan. It stars Cillian Murphy as Oppenheimer and Robert Downey Jr. as Strauss, with the remaining ensemble supporting cast including Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Florence Pugh, Josh Hartnett, Casey Affleck, Rami Malek and Kenneth Branagh.
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If the outcomes of these awards were fully independent, then the individual markets already imply >48%. (And I do not think these awards are independent)
@Ziddletwix I think we can say with 90% confidence that the best picture and director race is done and Oppenheimer wins both, but Best Actor is still up in the air.
Having the favor of critics can be crucial. There are instances where a performance might be critically acclaimed, yet the film as a whole doesn't receive the same level of acclaim (for example, Brendan Fraser in “The Whale” or Rami Malek in “Bohemian Rhapsody”). However, in the case of Cillian Murphy's acting and Christopher Nolan's directorial work, both have received widespread critical admiration, enhancing their prospects for Oscar wins for Best Actor and Best Director, respectively, as well as boosting the movie's chances for Best Picture. Additionally,
following its release, "Oppenheimer" quickly became a strong contender for the Oscars, largely due to the outstanding performances of its cast and the impactful socio-political narrative of the movie.
You're gonna make me go see this movie before the year's out so I can be an informed better, Brad.
@Jonagold After having watched both, I think KOTFM is not gonna be a big competition for these 3 categories. Both Leo and Scorsese will get nominated for sure but don't think either has big winning chances. De Niro and Lily Gladstone were the standouts from the movie. They would be big contenders for win in their respective categories.