Will the Starship orbital test flight be successful?
resolved Apr 20

This resolves to YES if the [planned orbital test flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_orbital_test_flight) for Starship happens and the spacecraft indeed lands in the Pacific ocean near Kauai. For the purposes of this question, the landing doesn't have to be propulsive, but it does have to hit the ocean within 100 km of the target location. If the test flight doesn't happen by the end of 2023 this resolves N/A.

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bought Ṁ170 of NO

Rapid unscheduled disassembly doesn't seem like within 100km of the target location.

bought Ṁ250 of NO


Guess this resolves N/A!

@Mqrius Hmm, I actually changed the close date from December in light of the recent testing. I'm inclined to not resolve N/A on account of my accidentally letting the market close if everyone is all right with that.

@Manifold I'm actually a bit surprised that the description doesn't show an updated close date. Does this not happen anymore?

@BoltonBailey Yeah I don't mind extending the close date, I don't think that would be very relevant to the market anyway. It's about the events in the first flight, not about when that first flight is. But maybe remove that bit from your description!

@Mqrius I've changed it to "the end of 2023", it seems unlikely we will get to that point.

predicted NO
predicted NO

@BoltonBailey the currently planned landing area for Starship (tiny blue rectangle) is more than 100km from any coast of a Hawaiian island, if my measurements are correct. How does that affect this market?

I think it makes most sense to resolve Yes if it lands in this rectangle as planned. @Isaac228c @JacobDean do you agree?

Image source: currently posted NOTMARs via Alexphysics13

predicted NO

@Mqrius Based on the current wording of the market it seems like that rectangle should just be considered the “target location”, and then the market cares about whether it lands within 100 km of that. Though it would be useful to clarify if that means 100 km from the center of the rectangle or 100 km from its edge.

predicted NO

@JacobDean Yeah that's fair enough!

I'll say 100 km from the center of the rectangle, that seems the most like what I was going for.

predicted NO

@BoltonBailey That works, I think that's bigger than the rectangle's diagonals.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I think failure will be more or less completely if some effect from scaling out hits hard. If it works, the experience with base components like engines, reentry control logic, etc will allow for being on target.

predicted NO

@Tegwick Some parts they have experience with yeah, but some parts are definitely new technology, not just scaling up of known technology. They de-risked doing flap reentry a little bit with the 10km hops, but there's still plenty left untested. The heat shield itself, flap use during hypersonic reentry, rotational inertia based stack separation, starting a Raptor in vacuum, probably some stuff I'm forgetting. I'm hyped for them flying, but new rockets don't succeed on their first flight, statistically.

predicted YES
Sure it will! When do you think it will take place? https://manifold.markets/stone/which-month-will-the-starship-orbit-4c32ca709dc6
bought Ṁ2 of NO
It's the "within 100km" that gets me to NO
predicted YES

@LivInTheLookingGlass So you think it will land, but not within 100km?

@LivInTheLookingGlass Yeah, this seems like a strange definition of success. Normally the success of the OFT would be getting to orbit (or suborbital but close to orbital) in the first place, with reentry in one piece being a stretch goal of less importance, and landing softly and accurately being even beyond that.