Will "The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power" run at least four seasons?

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This resolves YES if the Amazon series "The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power" has four seasons produced and aired on Amazon by the end of 2028. If the series is cancelled by Amazon before four seasons, or if 2028 ends without four seasons airing, this resolves to No.

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Season 3 market https://manifold.markets/Martlet/will-the-lord-of-the-rings-the-ring-zy6RylcEZ8

Base rates a little hard to reason about here, since there are many Amazon series that haven't ended yet. Looking just at dramas that premiered in 2016 or earlier, 3/10 went 4 seasons or longer.

They paid so damn much for licensing, no way they're cancelling it.

84% now on rotten tomatoes, but with a 38% audience score. I thought the first couple episodes were good.

Amazon has bet a lot on this both in terms of reputation and Money. I think they will very reluctant to drop it.

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