Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, credible sources report that a superconductor has been used in a commercial application at room temperature and ambient pressure. For the purposes of this question a commercial application will be considered to be one which is used as an intermediate product in the production of another product or service, or in other words not a novelty item or toy.

To qualify, all of the following must be confirmed by publicly available information about the superconductor itself or must have been demonstrated through credible published research for the material of which the superconductor is made:

• The superconductor has been used in a fully-functional commercial product (testing, development, or research and design do not qualify)

• The superconductor operates at a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius or higher

• The superconductor operates at a pressure of 2 atmospheres or less

• The superconductor satisfies standard criteria typically used to define a superconductor, such as exhibiting the Meissner effect and having zero or negligible resistance below the critical temperature.

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