Resolves to the least number such that there exists a starting chess position, with that many points of material for white removed, such that we have a (computational) proof of the outcome of that position with perfect play in 2040.

This market can resolve to no higher than 35, because in this position (with a total of 35 points of material removed) stockfish computes that the position is a win for black.

For clarity

pawn = 1

knight = 3

bishop = 3

rook = 5

queen = 9

Might come back to this in a while either by training a NNUE built for positions like the ones that we care about, or just waiting passively for a better Stockfish. I’ve tried with the latest master copy of Stockfish on a few QRP positions (overnight for each), and it couldn’t find mate

I have no understanding of the market definition.

Stockfish can show you some checkmate, but that does not mean it found a perfect play scenario. When stockfish shows a result it just means it is best found yet (perfect only for the defending side, thus unavoidable loss).

Why did you insert "perfect play"?

@KongoLandwalker I say "perfect play" to emphasize that I am interested in the game-theoretic value of a position. Stockfish showing an outcome is checkmate does indicate that it has found a perfect play scenario in the sense that it has found a collection of lines that results in the optimal outcome for the player, thereby proving that the game-theoretic value of the position is a win for that player. I do not care about finding such a collection of lines per se, though. The proof could take the form of a higher-level analysis of the game, and still count for the purposes of the market.

Mate in 11 found for https://lichess.org/analysis/rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPP3PP/4K3_w_kq_-_0_1?color=white. 34 is now the score to beat!

33 now lol, with a mate in 13 for, think I’m gonna try removing 2 pawns, and adding back in a knight now... https://lichess.org/analysis/rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPP2PPP/4K3_w_kq_-_0_1?color=white

@JoshuaB I actually get mate in 16 for rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/8/3QK3 w kq - 0 1 on lichess at depth 40.

@BoltonBailey xboard has found a mate in 18 for rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPP4/1NB1K3 w kq - 0 1 with what I believe is the April 3rd version of Stockfish. This has a material difference of 29

@JoshuaB And this has a material difference of 26, with a mate in 36. rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/P7/1N1QK3 w kq - 0 1 (also this is scid vs. mac, not xboard)