If Joe Biden is not the nominee, will a Democrat win the 2024 presidential election?
21
640
Nov 7
51%
chance

If Biden is the Democratic Party nominee, this resolves N/A, otherwise resolves YES if the winner of the 2024 election is a Democrat or is nominated by the Democratic National Convention, NO if it's a Republican or third party.

Basically, the goal of this market is to see whether the market thinks democrats would do better if Biden was not the nominee. This is inspired by one of Robin Hanson's ideas for conditional prediction markets where there would be a conditional market on a company's stock price if they fired their CEO.

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