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A derivative for the high likelihood choices:

https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/how-many-of-the-top-7-democratvotin?r=RXZhbkRhbmllbA

How many of the top 7 Democrat-voting states from 2020 will vote D in 2024? (DC, VT, MA, MD, HI, CA, NY)

This is a derivative market. It will resolve exactly according to this market: https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/which-statesterritories-will-go-dem?r=RXZhbkRhbmllbA

@evergreenemily OK, this one interests me. :P

@Lorxus I think 90% was a bit too high, and it should be around 87.5%.

Am I misunderstanding the question?