Which of these 8 famous folks will create a market?
Which of these 8 famous folks will create a market?
12
580Ṁ2531resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YESAnders Sandberg
Resolved
YESDylan Matthews
Resolved
NOWilliam MacAskill
Resolved
NOVitalik Buterin
Resolved
NORobin Hanson
Resolved
NOBryan Caplan
Resolved
NOHolden Karnofsky
Resolved
NONoah Smith
Famous folks are:
Robin Hanson
Bryan Caplan
Anders Sandberg
William MacAskill
Dylan Matthews
Holden Karnofsky
Noah Smith
Vitalik Buterin
As taken from the Manifold Adoption group.
This market is quasi-duplicate of /Manifold/will-2-or-more-of-these-8-famous-fo . Updte for clarity - The time period that this market covers is meant to be the same as that market, apparently the 2023 calendar year.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ80 | |
| 2 | Ṁ72 | |
| 3 | Ṁ43 | |
| 4 | Ṁ12 | |
| 5 | Ṁ6 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.