Since the London upgrade, the Ethereum network has used the EIP-1559 mechanism to target a certain amount of gas use in each block, currently 15 Million gas.

A Uniswap v2 transaction, as reported by Etherscan's Gas Tracker, which currently lists a gas limit of 152809 for this transaction. Under this limit, 98.16 swaps would fit in an average block.

This resolve YES for all dates on and after the first date when the targeted amount of gas in a block, divided by the posted Etherscan gas tracker gas limit for a Uniswap v2 transaction, is at least 150. If Etherscan stops updating their number, or if the network fundamentally changes its rules about gas, I will revisit the criteria according to my best judgement.

• Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided specific resolution information for certain dates:

  • November 1: Will resolve NO

  • January 1: Will resolve YES

This is based on:

• Gas tracker currently listing 356190 as the limit for Uniswap v2 transactions

• Block target changed from 45M to 60M gas at the end of November