I am planning on taking some flights to see my grandparents this Thanksgiving. I am a bit concerned that the government shutdown could interrupt my plans.
This question resolves YES if the flights I am planning to take happen as scheduled (even if I personally can't fly on them for some other reason). The question resolves NO if the flights are cancelled or delayed more than 8 hours.
Update 2025-11-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If one flight is delayed (but less than 8 hours) causing a missed connection, the market resolves YES as long as both individual flights departed within 8 hours of their scheduled times.
1,000Just made this market to parse out the correlation with the shutdown timeline
@EvanDaniel might be of interest to you.
@BoltonBailey Indeed! Bot now implements (I hope) mildly robust handling of the "other" outcome in the underlying. Thanks, and good luck on the flights!
@creator Would you be comfortable with us knowing the flights so we could track them in real time?
Or do you want this to be purely predictive without any live trading?
@Quroe I'm interested in this as a prediction, it's not like I need manifold to go on FlightAware and tell me the flight status on the day, I can do that myself.
@BoltonBailey The exact flights matter because a shutdown is likely to reduce throughput rather than shut down completely, and so if your flights are earlier in the day, they are less likely to be affected. FWIW, I believe it's UA 1829 (SFO -> DEN, takeoff at 6:30 am) and UA 393 (DEN -> TYS, takeoff at 11:04 am).