Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
In which election cycle will Democrats next win control of the Senate?
29
Ṁ320Ṁ6.5k
2030
0.3%
2024
51%
2026
26%
2028
23%
Other

Close date to be extended and new options to be added until this happens or until the Democratic party/US Senate ceases to exist.

Market context
2026 US Congressional Elections
2024 US Election
US Senate
US Congressional Elections 2024
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
opened a Ṁ1,500 NO at 20% order

imo the most within-the-realm-of-possibility scenario is that 2026 they keep what they have and flip Maine and NC, then 2028 they keep what they have and flip WI and the other NC - and that's assuming they don't lose Georgia in 2026 or PA in 2028

A multichoice market to replace these:

People are also trading

Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms?
Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
50% chance
2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
When will Democrats next win a 3/5ths supermajority in the US Senate?
Will Democrats control the US Senate any time after the 2024 elections and before the 2030 elections?
70% chance
Will Democrats or Republicans win a majority in the senate in 2026?
Will Democrats regain control of the Senate in 2026?
45% chance
Will Democrats control the senate on 1 Feb 2027?
51% chance
Is 2022-2024 The Last Time This Decade Democrats Will Control The Senate?
30% chance
If Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Senate?
51% chance