I am currently deciding whether or not to renew my apartment. The current lease period for my apartment is 8/17/2023-7/31/2024. If I don't say I want to renew, the landlord company will put the apartment on the market on October 2nd (two days from now).

Part of the difficulty in this decision is that I think it is likely that I will graduate and therefore not need the apartment next year, but I am not certain. I would like to know, if I decline to renew the apartment until January 1st, what the likelihood is that I will not be able to renew at that time due to someone else leasing it.

There is a high chance I decide to contact the company about renewing before Jan 1st 2024, in which case this resolves N/A. If I haven't done that, then I will ask if my apartment is still available on that date. This resolves YES if it is, and NO if not.

The apartment is in Champaign, IL near the UIUC campus. It's managed by the University Group (not affiliated with UIUC, that's just what they're called).

More potentially relevant information: Last year something similar happened (same company, also an apartment near campus). I waited to ask about renewing until around April, and they told me the apartment had already been leased to someone else. I asked about other apartments from the same landlord and they told me about this one.