Boklam avatar
resolved Dec 5
Will at least 20 unique traders contribute to the 40-60 wiggliness of this market?
Resolved
NO

I want to see this market "wiggle" between 40 (or below) and 60 (or above), at least 10 times total.

The first time this market goes to 60 or above, or to 40 or below, counts as a "half-wiggle". If the market goes to 60 or above, then the next time it goes to 40 or below counts as a "half-wiggle"; if it goes to 40 or below, then the next time it goes to 60 or above counts as a "half-wiggle".

Each "half-wiggle" is caused by a trader -- the trader whose trade made the market cross the threshold.

This market resolves to YES if 20 unique traders cause half-wiggles.

(I will use the rounded-off percentages I see under "Trades" to assess "40 or below" and "60 or above". Also, happy to clarify if my description was confusing...)


This market is a modification of my previous wiggle market. The previous market allowed one trader to create 10 wiggles and then claim the reward, so I'm disallowing that.

https://manifold.markets/Boklam/will-this-market-wiggle-4060-at-lea

This is also a cousin to @IsaacKing 's various "how many traders will this attract" markets.

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-market-have-50-unique-tra

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1
Unknown user avatar
Denizhan Akar
Ṁ110
2
Unknown user avatar
Gabrielle
Ṁ83
3
Unknown user avatar
Lauro Langosco
Ṁ68
4
Unknown user avatar
Juan Gil
Ṁ27
5
Unknown user avatar
BRTD
Ṁ8
Sort by:
DenizhanAkar avatar
Denizhan Akar
is predicting NO at 7%

When will this market resolve?

Boklam avatar

@DenizhanAkar I wasn't on Manifold for a week...