Will at least 20 unique traders contribute to the 40-60 wiggliness of this market?
16
6
340
resolved Dec 5
Resolved
NO

I want to see this market "wiggle" between 40 (or below) and 60 (or above), at least 10 times total.

The first time this market goes to 60 or above, or to 40 or below, counts as a "half-wiggle". If the market goes to 60 or above, then the next time it goes to 40 or below counts as a "half-wiggle"; if it goes to 40 or below, then the next time it goes to 60 or above counts as a "half-wiggle".

Each "half-wiggle" is caused by a trader -- the trader whose trade made the market cross the threshold.

This market resolves to YES if 20 unique traders cause half-wiggles.

(I will use the rounded-off percentages I see under "Trades" to assess "40 or below" and "60 or above". Also, happy to clarify if my description was confusing...)


This market is a modification of my previous wiggle market. The previous market allowed one trader to create 10 wiggles and then claim the reward, so I'm disallowing that.

https://manifold.markets/Boklam/will-this-market-wiggle-4060-at-lea

This is also a cousin to @IsaacKing 's various "how many traders will this attract" markets.

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-market-have-50-unique-tra

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted NO

When will this market resolve?

@DenizhanAkar I wasn't on Manifold for a week...