For details of what counts as a nuclear detonation, see this market:

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-d8af7cf07475

I will do my best to match the resolution criteria above-linked market, except that detonations by North Korea don't count.

(In particular, if the linked market resolves NO, this market automatically resolves NO.)

I'm creating this because I think there should be some arbitrage opportunities between the above-linked market and

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-422f66ae0107