How much advantage will Republicans gain in the House from gerrymandering?
3
310Ṁ103resolved Jan 4
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After results from tomorrow's election are finalized, this market resolves to
(percentage of House seats held by Republicans) - (percentage of voters who voted for Republican representatives in the House).
(I consider this a proxy measure for the effect of gerrymandering -- choosing district boundaries in such a way to confer an advantage on one party.)
For example, if Republicans win 45% of the popular vote but end up with 53% of the seats in the House, this market resolves to 8.
If the true value is greater than 10, I will resolve to 10; similarly for -10.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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