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MANIFOLD
Did Manifold recently change the probability/payout formula?
17
Ṁ330Ṁ3.1k
resolved Jan 16
Resolved
N/A

This is a test market because I want to figure out what's going on. It looks like something has changed, and it's now easier than it used to be to push a market all the way to 0.0%.

Even though this is a test market, I will try to resolve reasonably in line with the headline question.

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predictedYES

OK, given that at least one person bet YES in this market with a particular change in mind... and I had been aware of that change, but not meant to count it... I figured the best thing to do was to resolve N/A.

We haven’t changed anything recently

predictedYES

@ian Well this is enough to resolve as soon as I finish playing with this.

predictedNO

@Boklam this should be closed now, no?

Is this concerning binary markets? Also, long ago can these changes have taken place?

@NeonNuke *how long ago

predictedYES

@NeonNuke Yes, concerning binary markets... and in the last month or two at the earliest.

@Boklam Manifold has reduced starting liquidity from M$100 to M$50 about a month ago:

predictedYES

@Yev Ah. I knew about that -- forgot to mention it when I wrote the question.

OK maybe I will resolve to N/A then, anything else seems at least a little unfair?

@Boklam Seems fine to me

predictedNO

@Boklam The starting liquidity doesn't strike me as being part of the "probability/payout formula".

@IsaacKing Yeah it seems like a misworded title, they describe their confusion as being able to push the market prob to 0% more easily