Resolves NO if she resigns, is fired, dies, or never takes office as UN Ambassador.
Update 2025-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
YES: Resolves YES if Elise Stefanik serves continuously as UN Ambassador from her confirmation until the end of Trump’s term.
NA: Resolves NA if she fails to get Senate confirmation.
Update 2025-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on 'Never Takes Office':
If Elise Stefanik fails to obtain Senate confirmation (and therefore never takes office), the market resolves NA.
If she is confirmed but for any reason never takes office (or leaves without serving), the market resolves NO.
Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution for the scenario where Elise Stefanik is not confirmed by the Senate and therefore never takes office:
In this situation, the market will resolve NA.
This interpretation of 'fails to obtain Senate confirmation' (leading to NA) applies even if confirmation is not achieved due to reasons such as the nomination being withdrawn or not proceeding to a vote, rather than solely a direct Senate rejection vote.
In cases where the failure to take office is due to lack of Senate confirmation, this NA resolution takes precedence over the original market description's 'never takes office' clause (which would otherwise lead to NO).
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Given the news today, resolving NA seems more consistent with than resolving NO. @traders any other views?
@BlueDragon I thought this was an unambiguous NO. She didn't fail at the Senate (she never got a vote) && she never took office, so this is a NO
@Robincvgr (That is, will be an unambiguous NO if you decide to leave it open in case Trump renominates her but he doesn't)
@creator Is there any restriction on when she needs to become UN ambassador for this to resolve as YES?
For example, she doesn't run for her next term, and becomes is UN ambassador from Jan 2027 until the end of the term, does that count?
@DanielTilkin interesting, I’d say yes, but I see the ambiguity you are getting at. That would technically not be Trump’s whole term, just one year of it.
I don’t think this scenario is likely. More likely, she steps down from Congress and gets confirmed in the next month, but anything is possible.
Clarifications I think make sense:
Resolves YES if she serves continuously from her confirmation to the end of Trump’s term
Resolves NA if she fails to get Senate confirmation