How will each Supreme Court justice vote in the the Grants Pass appeal?
11
1kṀ8001
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
90%
Samuel Alito
Resolved
30%
Ketanji Brown-Jackson
Resolved
20%
Sonya Sotomayor
Resolved
80%
Neil Gorsuch
Resolved
70%
Brett Kavanaugh
Resolved
60%
Amy Coney-Barrett
Resolved
90%
Clarance Thomas
Resolved
20%
Elena Kagan
Resolved
80%
John Roberts

Resolves to percentage:

  • low % means more sympathy for homeless rights, civic responsibility, humanitarianism

  • high % means more sympathy for local municipalities right to regulate

  • NA if there is really no way to say

This will be subjective (so I won’t bet) but empirical (based on the precise wording of comments from the justices or sections of the opinions they authored)… so please weigh in!

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Ok @traders here's my proposed resolution:

Alito 90
Jackson 30
Sotomayor 20
Gorsuch 80
Kavenaugh 70
Barrett 60
Thomas 90
Kagan 20
Roberts 80

Here's my expanded rationale, which I based on the opinions vis a vis rights to regulate versus individual rights as expressed in oral arguments by the questions each Justice asked as well as in the final decision. Comments encouraged. I'll resolve this as soon as 24 hours have passed with no comments from anyone.

Ugh I forgot I said I wouldn’t bet on this one, sorry folks, hope it helps that I won’t flinch at losing Mana on the resolution, which require me to go back through the oral arguments and decisions to see if I can tease out an assessment of each justice’s sympathies 😮‍💨. Will post proposed %s for comments before resolving.

Absolutely gutting profile in the New York Times (gift article)

@BlueDragon Thanks for sharing, I'd never read such an in-depth profile of a homeless person. No idea on how to bet, though.

Argument transcript.

From the Washington Post:

Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. asked the Biden administration’s lawyer: “Why would you think these nine people are the best people to judge and weigh those policy judgments?”

Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh also expressed concern about federal courts “micromanaging homeless policy.”

More

The justices said they were struggling with how to draw the line between status and conduct and what it would mean to expand Eighth Amendment protections.

Roberts tried to make a distinction between a person who is addicted to drugs, which he suggested is an ongoing status, and a person who is homeless and might move in and out of homelessness over time.

Justice Neil M. Gorsuch asked whether constitutional protections for unhoused individuals with nowhere to sleep would then have to extend to cooking or making a fire outdoors since eating, like sleeping, is “a human necessity every person has to do.” Would the Eighth Amendment prohibit punishment for stealing food, he asked.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett said similar questions could be asked about trespassing and squatting, and of urinating or defecating in public.

Boosting / adding liquidity since this takes work…

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