This market predicts whether there will be 100,000 or more self-deportees by the end of 2025.

The self-deportation program suggests that migrants who voluntarily “self-deport” through the CBP Home app will receive a $1,000 payment, a plane ticket, and may have the option to return “if they are good”.

As of early 2024 there were over 11 million unauthorized immigrants in the US. Trump campaigned on a promise to deport “millions and millions” of migrants, but have so far deported people at a rate comparable with (or below) that of the previous administration. The difference is the level of publicity, cruelty, due process, and respect for established norms.

Unnamed administration sources indicate the indicate the internal target for deportations is 600k, and that self-deportations are a key part of the strategy. (Source)

A 2008 voluntary self-deportation program targeting 457,000 participants actually had 8 participants. Will lack of safety, freedom, and persecution lead to 100,000 or more self-deportations this time?

Resolution will be based on official statistics released by CPB and/or independent estimates verified by credible news outlets, and may be extended until such sources are available and confirmed.