Will Hans Niemann be officially found to be cheating in a chess game in 2022?
Resolved
NO

Oct 4, 6:33pm: The evidence has to be for 2022.

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BionicD0LPH1N avatar
Bionic
predicted NO

@ me if you’ve lost money because of misinterpretation, I feel really bad about this.

@SneakySly and @LawrenceChan already told me, I just need to set of a thing that calculates how much people lost on the question, and set up the manalinks.

kottsiek avatar
kottsiek
predicted NO at 3%

Should resolve no.

kottsiek avatar
kottsiek
predicted NO at 3%

@BionicD0LPH1N

Cameron avatar
Cameron
predicted NO at 46%

Interpreted the question as cheating found that happened in 2022, as per the report it actual seems unlikely to be found in 2022, so I hope it resolves no as per my bet.

Actually the report pretty much lines up with what he said (Cheating at age of 16) except some overlap into when he was 17. Not really understanding the outrage esp considering the level of cheating going on with other top gms.

LawrenceChan avatar
Lawrence Chan
sold Ṁ230 of YES
Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
bought Ṁ150 of NO

To summarize, it's basically the same as WSJ reported. They don't have any evidence, other than the suspicion that everyone already knows about, that he cheated at any time after August 2020, around when (November 2020) he was temporarily banned from Chess.com and they met with him to discuss the cheating. They also have no evidence that he ever cheated in OTB play.

Their investigation

They investigated the reported "high number of “near perfect” games", and found that the methodology wasn't up to their standards. They also found that he didn't have a remarkably steep jump in strength from 2500 to 2650+..

They did find that he was "the fastest rising top player in Classical OTB chess in modern history." He also had two rating plateaus that both lasted about three years, both of which started after large jumps.

They investigated the game with Magnus and found that they personally did not have any evidence that the game was cheated, other than Hans' behavior around the game and what Magnus said, and they "do not advocate for any conclusions regarding cheating being made based on this one encounter."

My interpretation

With the plateaus and jumps, one possible explanation is that he could have cheated to get the initial jump, and then didn't go any higher until he was able to keep up. However, the first jump would have been in 2015, when he was 12-13, which would be a difficult age to consistently conceal OTB cheating. The first jump was also after a fairly quick decrease of 150 points though, which could be explained by a changing style or it could explain an incentive to cheat. Overall, I would guess that he simply improves in a more stepwise way than most other chess players, though cheating is still a possible explanation.

One of the biggest reasons that people have been stating for cheating in the game is that Magnus would not have said anything unless he had evidence outside of the game, likely from Chess.com since he has partial ownership. However, this report didn't seem to reveal anything to support that theory.

At this point, I still think that it's very possible that Hans cheated, but I doubt that FIDE will find any evidence otherwise at this point. I don't think it's very likely that this will resolve positively.

Mateon1 avatar
Mateon1
bought Ṁ30 of NO

@LawrenceChan In summary, Chess.com found instances of online cheating in 2020, but nothing certain since then.

Personally, I think it's not unlikely (probably >40%) Hans did cheat, but with this report not finding anything conclusive I don't believe further evidence of cheating in 2022 is likely to be uncovered, at least not anytime soon.

BionicD0LPH1N avatar
Bionic
predicted NO at 68%

Sorry, I thought I had answered but apparently did not. The question intended to find out whether Hans cheated in 2022, but I agree that it was very ambiguous.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
predicted YES at 50%

@BionicD0LPH1N Could you add a note to the description saying the evidence has to be for 2022

BionicD0LPH1N avatar
Bionic
predicted NO at 62%

Since many people have interpreted the question, I'm open to tipping people who will have lost money under the misinterpretation.

Also, I'm curious, from this quote:

The report, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, alleges that Niemann likely received illegal assistance in more than 100 online games, as recently as 2020.

I don't think that there is a plausible world in which Hans Niemann cheated in 2020, and then stopped. His most impressive Elo rise happened in 2021, not 2020. Does anyone disagree?

I want to make clear that the question of whether he cheated or not is not the resolution criteria, rather whether an official source affirms and backs with evidence that he cheated in 2022.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
predicted NO at 79%

@BionicD0LPH1N It seems at least plausible that he cheated in 2020 then stopped cheating once his Elo continued to rise and he felt like an exposure of cheating would hurt him even more. Also, in 2020 he would have been under 18, so he might have felt safer to cheat compared to being of age.

Cheating in 2020 definitely increases the odds, but I wouldn't say that it's definite.

JohnGrossWhitaker avatar
John Gross-Whitaker
sold Ṁ67 of YES

@Gabrielle But the report not including 2022 cheating is an update twords no for me. It was the most likely source of an accusation

SneakySly avatar
SneakySly
predicted YES at 58%

@BionicD0LPH1N Ah I misunderstood then!

LawrenceChan avatar
Lawrence Chan
predicted YES at 58%

@BionicD0LPH1N Thanks for the clarification (and for the tip?)---I wouldn't have bet at 72% if I interpreted it the other way.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
predicted YES at 67%

@BionicD0LPH1N Does the cheating need to happen in 2022?

JohnGrossWhitaker avatar
John Gross-Whitaker
bought Ṁ200 of YES

@SneakySly the article: “The report states that Niemann privately confessed to the allegations, and that he was subsequently banned from the site for a period of time.”

Seems like a yes resolution could come from this report alone

jack avatar
Jack
predicted NO at 71%

The report, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, alleges that Niemann likely received illegal assistance in more than 100 online games, as recently as 2020.

Nothing about 2022 (see previous discussion about clarifying what the question is asking)

Charlie avatar
Charlie
bought Ṁ40 of NO

https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/will-hans-niemann-be-officially-fou#88iH876OXNeuzyQGWe7A

And this comment seems to suggest that the market creator is only looking at cheating that occurred in 2022.

LawrenceChan avatar
Lawrence Chan
bought Ṁ150 of YES

Gah, should've asked this before. Would this resolve true if additional cheating was uncovered but not it didn't occur in 2022? Or only if he was found to cheat IN 2022?

jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ0 of NO
LawrenceChan avatar
Lawrence Chan
predicted YES at 72%

@jack Yeah, so I'm asking again :(

jack avatar
Jack
predicted NO at 72%

I have been betting under the assumption that the cheating had to have been in 2022. This comment https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/will-hans-niemann-be-officially-fou#88iH876OXNeuzyQGWe7A slightly implies that but still isn't crystal clear.

jack avatar
Jack
predicted NO at 72%

Also that was just my first interpretation of the question, it seemed like the most natural interpretation, especially given that Hans did admit to cheating already in the past.

LawrenceChan avatar
Lawrence Chan
predicted YES at 72%

@jack Yeah, I bet a lot with the (found to be cheating) in 2022, before realizing there was another interpretation :(

jack avatar
Jack
predicted NO at 72%

@LawrenceChan Yeah I hate easily avoidable ambiguity. :(

DavidFurlong avatar
David Furlong
bought Ṁ10 of NO

I think he has likely cheated - there's some statistical evidence that seems compelling. However this evidence is likely insufficient to constitute proof, and a FIDE investigation won't be able to conclude cheating without catching him red handed

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
predicted YES at 59%

It looks like Niemann is playing at much better correlation to a chess engine than anyone else has. According to this video Carlsson at his best was about 70% but Niemann was managing >90% over 10+ games.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfPzUgzrOcQ&t=0s

jack avatar
Jack
predicted NO at 64%

@NathanpmYoung Copying my comment from https://manifold.markets/jack/did-hans-niemann-cheat-against-magn#U7VFkFEYWfLsdBEOE5SN:

https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/xqvhgh/chessbases_engine_correlation_value_are_not/ 'Chessbase's "engine correlation value" are not statistically relevant and should not be used to incriminate people'.

I think Yosha responded with some counterclaim, but it didn't make any sense to me, so my surface read on these particular engine correlation claims is that they don't seem to be a reliable indicator of cheating.

However, I still think Niemann cheated more likely than not.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
predicted YES at 64%

@jack I would redact if I could.

Omar avatar
Omar
predicted NO at 68%

Whether he cheated or whether he will be found to have cheated (i.e. there is enough proof) are different things.

ian avatar
Ian Philips
predicted YES at 56%

Btw I added a M$250 comment bounty to this question @BionicD0LPH1N that you can award to any comment you deem worthy!

ian avatar
Ian Philips
predicted YES at 56%

@ian correction: M$500 available

WilliamKiely avatar
William Kiely
bought Ṁ1 of NO

The question wording is unclear to me. For clarification:

(1) Does the chess game or games in which the cheating is officially judged to have happened has to have been played during 2022?

(2) Does the judgment have to occur by the end of 2022?

(3) What qualifies as official? Any judgment made by an organization hosting the game, whether online in person?

WilliamKiely avatar
William Kiely
predicted NO at 49%

@WilliamKiely Also, is "found" an intentionally stronger word than my "judged"? Or would "judged" be sufficient even if proof that it was 100% definitely cheating wasn't "found"?

SamuelRichardson avatar

@WilliamKiely Agreed on 1. I'd be willing to bet on a market like this if it had a some additional clarification around when the cheating occurred. Could this be true if additional cheating was uncovered but not in 2022? Or only if he was found to cheat IN 2022

PeterBorah avatar
PeterBorah
bought Ṁ20 of YES

Magnus's statement makes me think he has some evidence we haven't seen yet.

Between that and the likelihood that chess.com has evidence of recent cheating, I'm surprised this is as low as 20%.

aps avatar
aps
predicted NO at 25%

We know he cheated online before 2022 and I'd even believe he cheated OTB at the time. But this year? 25% is too high.

ahalekelly avatar
Adrian
predicted NO at 41%

@BionicD0LPH1N would Chess.com accusing him of cheating on their platform in 2022 count as Official?

BionicD0LPH1N avatar
Bionic
predicted NO at 25%

@ahalekelly Yes, it would count, provided it was an official Chess.com statement defending their accusation. In the case of the tweet, it is relatively vague and not confirmed to be in 2022. I'd like some hard undeniable evidence ('found' to be cheating implies it is known, not just suspected), but in the end, I'll resolve to what the question says. Any major reputable chess institution counts, including chess.com, the Saint Louis Chess Club, FIDE, etc.

Sinclair avatar

No opinion. Just thought of making this market myself after reading this r/slatestarcodex thread of the recent chess scandal

also TIL that FTX sponsored a chess tournament

Sinclair avatar

Also, featured because its news.

Related:

PeterBorah avatar

Is this OTB chess only, or would online cheating count?

Benthamite avatar
Benthamite
predicted YES at 19%

@PeterBorah I interpret the question to include online

SanatSinghal avatar

@BenWest Didn’t he already admit to cheating online in his interview?

Benthamite avatar
Benthamite
predicted YES at 51%

@SanatSinghal Not in 2022. He claimed it was when he was 12 and 16 (2015 and 2019).

Charlie avatar
Charlie
bought Ṁ40 of NO

I didn’t know about the basis of this question and it sent me down a huge rabbit hole! ♟