Will Hans Niemann be officially found to be cheating in a chess game in 2022?
199
199
648
resolved Jan 8
Resolved
NO

Oct 4, 6:33pm: The evidence has to be for 2022.

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predicted NO

@ me if you’ve lost money because of misinterpretation, I feel really bad about this.

@SneakySly and @LawrenceChan already told me, I just need to set of a thing that calculates how much people lost on the question, and set up the manalinks.

predicted NO

Should resolve no.

predicted NO

@BionicD0LPH1N

predicted NO

Interpreted the question as cheating found that happened in 2022, as per the report it actual seems unlikely to be found in 2022, so I hope it resolves no as per my bet.

Actually the report pretty much lines up with what he said (Cheating at age of 16) except some overlap into when he was 17. Not really understanding the outrage esp considering the level of cheating going on with other top gms.

sold Ṁ230 of YES
bought Ṁ150 of NO

To summarize, it's basically the same as WSJ reported. They don't have any evidence, other than the suspicion that everyone already knows about, that he cheated at any time after August 2020, around when (November 2020) he was temporarily banned from Chess.com and they met with him to discuss the cheating. They also have no evidence that he ever cheated in OTB play.

Their investigation

They investigated the reported "high number of “near perfect” games", and found that the methodology wasn't up to their standards. They also found that he didn't have a remarkably steep jump in strength from 2500 to 2650+..

They did find that he was "the fastest rising top player in Classical OTB chess in modern history." He also had two rating plateaus that both lasted about three years, both of which started after large jumps.

They investigated the game with Magnus and found that they personally did not have any evidence that the game was cheated, other than Hans' behavior around the game and what Magnus said, and they "do not advocate for any conclusions regarding cheating being made based on this one encounter."

My interpretation

With the plateaus and jumps, one possible explanation is that he could have cheated to get the initial jump, and then didn't go any higher until he was able to keep up. However, the first jump would have been in 2015, when he was 12-13, which would be a difficult age to consistently conceal OTB cheating. The first jump was also after a fairly quick decrease of 150 points though, which could be explained by a changing style or it could explain an incentive to cheat. Overall, I would guess that he simply improves in a more stepwise way than most other chess players, though cheating is still a possible explanation.

One of the biggest reasons that people have been stating for cheating in the game is that Magnus would not have said anything unless he had evidence outside of the game, likely from Chess.com since he has partial ownership. However, this report didn't seem to reveal anything to support that theory.

At this point, I still think that it's very possible that Hans cheated, but I doubt that FIDE will find any evidence otherwise at this point. I don't think it's very likely that this will resolve positively.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@LawrenceChan In summary, Chess.com found instances of online cheating in 2020, but nothing certain since then.

Personally, I think it's not unlikely (probably >40%) Hans did cheat, but with this report not finding anything conclusive I don't believe further evidence of cheating in 2022 is likely to be uncovered, at least not anytime soon.

predicted NO

Sorry, I thought I had answered but apparently did not. The question intended to find out whether Hans cheated in 2022, but I agree that it was very ambiguous.

predicted YES

@BionicD0LPH1N Could you add a note to the description saying the evidence has to be for 2022

predicted NO

Since many people have interpreted the question, I'm open to tipping people who will have lost money under the misinterpretation.

Also, I'm curious, from this quote:

The report, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, alleges that Niemann likely received illegal assistance in more than 100 online games, as recently as 2020.

I don't think that there is a plausible world in which Hans Niemann cheated in 2020, and then stopped. His most impressive Elo rise happened in 2021, not 2020. Does anyone disagree?

I want to make clear that the question of whether he cheated or not is not the resolution criteria, rather whether an official source affirms and backs with evidence that he cheated in 2022.

predicted NO

@BionicD0LPH1N It seems at least plausible that he cheated in 2020 then stopped cheating once his Elo continued to rise and he felt like an exposure of cheating would hurt him even more. Also, in 2020 he would have been under 18, so he might have felt safer to cheat compared to being of age.

Cheating in 2020 definitely increases the odds, but I wouldn't say that it's definite.

sold Ṁ67 of YES

@Gabrielle But the report not including 2022 cheating is an update twords no for me. It was the most likely source of an accusation

predicted YES

@BionicD0LPH1N Ah I misunderstood then!

predicted YES

@BionicD0LPH1N Thanks for the clarification (and for the tip?)---I wouldn't have bet at 72% if I interpreted it the other way.

predicted YES

@BionicD0LPH1N Does the cheating need to happen in 2022?

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@SneakySly the article: “The report states that Niemann privately confessed to the allegations, and that he was subsequently banned from the site for a period of time.”

Seems like a yes resolution could come from this report alone

predicted NO

The report, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, alleges that Niemann likely received illegal assistance in more than 100 online games, as recently as 2020.

Nothing about 2022 (see previous discussion about clarifying what the question is asking)

bought Ṁ40 of NO

https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/will-hans-niemann-be-officially-fou#88iH876OXNeuzyQGWe7A

And this comment seems to suggest that the market creator is only looking at cheating that occurred in 2022.

bought Ṁ150 of YES

Gah, should've asked this before. Would this resolve true if additional cheating was uncovered but not it didn't occur in 2022? Or only if he was found to cheat IN 2022?

bought Ṁ0 of NO
predicted YES

@jack Yeah, so I'm asking again :(

predicted NO

I have been betting under the assumption that the cheating had to have been in 2022. This comment https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/will-hans-niemann-be-officially-fou#88iH876OXNeuzyQGWe7A slightly implies that but still isn't crystal clear.

predicted NO

Also that was just my first interpretation of the question, it seemed like the most natural interpretation, especially given that Hans did admit to cheating already in the past.

predicted YES

@jack Yeah, I bet a lot with the (found to be cheating) in 2022, before realizing there was another interpretation :(

predicted NO

@LawrenceChan Yeah I hate easily avoidable ambiguity. :(