Will France eliminate Argentina at the finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
2022 FIFA World Cup•2022 World cup final
23
6
Ṁ430
resolved Dec 18
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if France wins their match or ties and wins the penality shoot-out against Argentina in their final match. Similarly resolves NO if France loses their match or ties and loses the penalty shoot-out.

If there ends up not being a final between France and Argentina, this resolves N/A.

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bought Ṁ9 of YES

I don't know why ArbBot thinks France is more likely to lose, but I think I trust it.

@Yev 538 says this has a 48% chance so seems pretty good, do you what arbbot is arbing this with?

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@NeonNuke if it's the two markets you linked below, it's doing .2/.43

predicted YES

@NeonNuke It's arbing between the 4 "Will the final be X vs Y?", 4 "Conditional on final being X vs Y, will X win?", 4 "Will X win?", and a few others.

Maybe it bought NO here because it saw that P(FR wins) < P(FR wins | FR vs AR) P(FR vs AR) + P(FR wins | FR vs HR) P(FR vs HR).

bought Ṁ20 of NO

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