Will France eliminate Argentina at the finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
23
430Ṁ15kresolved Dec 18
Resolved
NO1H
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Resolves YES if France wins their match or ties and wins the penality shoot-out against Argentina in their final match. Similarly resolves NO if France loses their match or ties and loses the penalty shoot-out.
If there ends up not being a final between France and Argentina, this resolves N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@NeonNuke It's arbing between the 4 "Will the final be X vs Y?", 4 "Conditional on final being X vs Y, will X win?", 4 "Will X win?", and a few others.
Maybe it bought NO here because it saw that P(FR wins) < P(FR wins | FR vs AR) P(FR vs AR) + P(FR wins | FR vs HR) P(FR vs HR).