Resolves positively if my father, a 55-year-old patient with a severe AIS Grade B thoracic spinal cord injury regains sufficient lower-body motor function to take at least 10 consecutive steps (without assistive devices) within the next 12 months?

The max forecast period is 12 months from today (2025-Mar-6). I will resolve this market to YES once they take 10 consecutive steps. Otherwise the market will resolve no. In cases of ambiguity I will use my best judgment.

Background:
My father sustained severe spinal injuries following a bad fall 3 weeks ago. The spinal injury is classified as ASIA Grade B (incomplete), with significant cord damage observed on imaging. Although initial lower-body movement was absent immediately post-surgery, recent assessments at 3 weeks show encouraging signs, including slight movement in the left toes and some sensory preservation, particularly in the left leg.

The 7 hour emergency spinal surgery was performed within 24 hours and was as successful as anyone could have hoped. The patient has fractures at T4, T11, T12(spinal compression at T11/12 now released.

Despite these early signs, clinical data suggest that full recovery of normal ambulation remains rare in similar cases.

Background information:

• Clinical literature indicates that most neurological recovery and functional gains in spinal cord injury cases occur within the first 12 months post-injury.

• Prognostic factors include the extent of initial cord damage, early signs of motor and sensory recovery (such as the observed toe movement and sensory differences), patient age, and the intensity of rehabilitation efforts.

• The patient’s recent improvements (e.g., movement in the left toes and sensory preservation) may indicate a better-than-average prognosis, but they must be weighed against the severity of the original injury and the typical outcomes reported in the literature.

Extra information

• If you would like me to ask Chat GPT Deep Research questions related to this market please request them in the comments section. I will likely do this and share the response publicly, but note that I may take some time to respond.

• I intend to comment with medically relevant updates as they happen. I'll update this description if there are substantial updates.

• I will not trade on this market, and I don't expect anyone with significant private information to trade on this market.

• I intend to respond to questions, but expect to sometimes give less specific than ideal information to preserve the subjects anonymity.

• Posting from a new account, but I have traded quite a lot on Manifold from my main account in the past.