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62% chance. Context Lula, the current President of Brazil, has signaled to close associates that Flávio Dino is his choice for the upcoming vacancy in the STF. This vacancy will be created due to the retirement of Rosa Weber, a female justice. There was an expectation that Lula would nominate a woman to maintain gender balance in the court. Other candidates include Bruno Dantas and Jorge Messias. Discussion The appointment to the STF is a significant political move with various influencing factors, such as public opinion, the political landscape, and the qualifications of the candidates. The expectation that Lula would nominate a woman adds another layer of complexity to his decision. Flávio Dino has been discreet about his candidacy, which could either work in his favor or against him. Sources Metrópoles Article Resolution Criteria The market will resolve as "Yes" if Flávio Dino is officially appointed to the STF by President Lula by the end of 2023. Official announcements or credible news reports will be considered for resolution.