Is there a grandmaster on Manifold?
Basic
15
681
2026
73%
chance

Resolves YES if I see definitive proof that one of you here on Manifold is a chess grandmaster. Will stay open until end of 2025 or until a grandmaster joins Manifold, whichever comes first.

It cannot be the friend or relative of a Manifold user, and if you are (or if someone you suspect is) an anonymous user, I'll need something that definitively proves that the holder of the account is a grandmaster.

I will not bet in this market.

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Marshall PolarisboughtṀ200YES

@mqp 🤔

Is it that the GM must only have an account or do they have to be actively trading on markets?

@sarius Hmm, let’s say they have to have taken at least one action on the site (bet, comment, market creation, etc)

Actually gonna edit the description to 2025 since it looks like only 1 person holds position currently and it's NO so this would only help them. I think 2030 is too far a time horizon and it's quite likely that a user in the next 8 years or so would be able to recruit a GM to make an account. I could probably do it if I put my mind to it.

No way there is right now, there's more billionaires on earth than grandmasters. Maybe if Manifold grows enough, though.

@Joshua true but I'd bet the user base of Manifold skews heavily towards chess players and ppl who know other chess players. There's at least 1 user on this site that I suspect could recruit a GM to join.