Will the German parliament reform the Schuldenbremse until 2026
Will the German parliament reform the Schuldenbremse until 2026
15
100Ṁ2354Dec 31
95%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes, if the Schuldenbremse, which prohibits the government from taking on high debts, is changed in a meaningful way. The market resolves based on a reform being implemented. It is not enough for it to be in talks or planning.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Deutsche Bank AG be bailed out by the German government before 2026?
3% chance
Can Germany freeze AfD funding before August 2025?
2% chance
German Bundestag election 2025 requires partial repetition in at least one district by August 1st 2025
5% chance
Will Germany pass a law introducing conscription for 18 year olds by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) be part of the German government by 2026?
1% chance
Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030?
8% chance
Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?
10% chance
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
15% chance
Germany submits motion to exclude AfD from state funding in 2025
18% chance
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
73% chance