Resolution criteria

• This resolves YES if the South Florida Detention Facility (“Alligator Alcatraz”) at Dade‑Collier Training and Transition Airport (TNT) in Ochopee, Florida physically holds ≥1 detainee at any time from 12:00 a.m. to 11:59 p.m. ET on January 1, 2026. Otherwise NO. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Acceptable evidence (any one is sufficient): an official statement or filing from DHS/ICE or the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM); a federal court order/filing referencing population on or immediately around that date; or reporting by major outlets (e.g., AP, Washington Post, Miami Herald/NBC6/CBS Miami). Source examples: ICE facility list, court docket in Friends of the Everglades v. Noem, AP/WaPo coverage. (ice.gov, clearinghouse.net, apnews.com, washingtonpost.com).

• Edge cases: Name changes or rebranding do not matter; resolution is tied to the physical TNT site. “Detainee” means a person in government custody at the facility (not staff/visitors/contractors). Any nonzero headcount during the date is YES; staging without detainees is NO.

• If there is no reporting about the state of the facility exactly on 1/1/2026, I'll accept reporting on either side of the date and assume that if it changes state that will get reported. For example, a report published with occupancy on 12/20/2025 and 1/20/2025 are both 100, I'll assume that it never dipped down to 0 without being reported. I might delay resolution for a while if it's ambiguous to allow more information to surface.

Background

• “Alligator Alcatraz” is a state-run immigration detention site co‑located at the Dade‑Collier airport in the Everglades, opened in early July 2025. (pbs.org, en.wikipedia.org)

• On Aug 21, 2025, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction halting expansion and new transfers and ordered an orderly wind‑down; by late Aug, officials and reporting indicated the site was being emptied. Appeals/stay fights are ongoing. (earthjustice.org, news.bloomberglaw.com, washingtonpost.com)

• Multiple outlets use “Alligator Alcatraz” as the facility’s moniker; AP and others have detailed costs, capacity claims, and litigation over environmental compliance. (apnews.com)

Considerations

• If the injunction stands, the site could be empty well before Jan 1, 2026; if an appeal or new order allows reactivation, detainees could return. Track the federal docket and state/federal announcements. (clearinghouse.net, earthjustice.org)

• ICE’s public facility pages may not promptly reflect temporary or state‑run arrangements; in conflicts, prioritize contemporaneous court filings or multi‑source major‑media reports. (ice.gov)

• A second Florida facility (“Deportation Depot”) is being developed; transfers there would not count toward this market unless they occur at TNT. (apnews.com)