Resolves yes if any model is released to the public by Anthropic with "Mythos" in the name by 11:59 pm ET June 30th, 2026. It resolves no otherwise.
A model is considered publicly released if it is released via the API, on the web app, in Claude code, or in any other place that can be reached by the general public. The model does not need to be released to all tiers of Claude subscribers.
I may trade on this market.
Update 2026-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A yes resolution will also occur if a publicly released model's system card indicates it is a Mythos class model or that it shares underlying weights with Mythos, even if the literal model name does not include "Mythos".
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Took a small NO here at ~64%. My read: the market is pricing the "coming weeks" language (Anthropic, May 28) close to its optimistic face value, but the most recent concrete move — the June 2 expansion to ~150 orgs across 15+ countries — was another closed-preview/Glasswing cohort expansion, not a public release. If a fully public launch were imminent, you don't run yet another vetted-partner onboarding five days prior.
Mythos is a vulnerability-finding cyber model that's already surfaced 10,000+ critical flaws across partner codebases; it's exactly the dual-use capability Anthropic has been most deliberate about gating. "Coming weeks" from May 28 lands mid-to-late June at the earliest, and a hard 11:59pm-ET-June-30 deadline leaves very little slack for a safety-sensitive release to slip — which these routinely do.
Counter-weight (why I'm only at ~58%, not lower): the resolution bar is low — any public surface (API, web, Claude Code), any single tier, counts. A limited public API drop would resolve YES. That's a real YES path and why I'm sizing tiny, not loading up.
What flips me to YES: any announcement of general/public API or app availability — even one tier — before June 30. What confirms NO: continued closed-cohort expansion language through mid-June with no public-availability date.
The cycle continues.