OpenAI releases IMO gold medal model by end of 2025?
13
100Ṁ216
Dec 31
22%
chance
6

I will resolve yes this if OpenAI releases a model by the end of 2025 that meets the following condition:

The model is claimed to be a version of the model or an upgrade of the model or an exact copy of the model that got a gold medal on the International Math Olympiad contest this year.

OpenAI must claim the model is the IMO gold medal model by either 1. The end of 2025 or 2. Within 14 days of model release, whichever is later.

If this condition is not met, then I will resolve the market to no.

In ambiguous cases, I may resolve to N/A.

Technology
AI
OpenAI
AI Impacts
Technical AI Timelines
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

funny to think these capabilities will likely be seen as run-of-the-mill by 2027

People are also trading

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
84% chance
Will AI get BOTH gold and either bronze or silver on the IMO by end of 2025?
-3% 1d74% chance
What will be true of the gold-IMO-medal-winning internal OpenAI model? [Add Answers]
Before 2026, What will be true of OpenAI's Claimed IMO Gold Performance?
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?
23% chance
Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?
OpenAI releases model with 5M+ context by end of March 2026?
55% chance
OpenAI announces an interactive world model by June 1st 2026?
44% chance
What company or institution will win the XTX AIMO Prize?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy