Clone to Polymarket's market:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between November 4, 2024 and April 29, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hamas military conflict must pertain to the entirety of Gaza, and be declared through official channels by both parties.
A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media source.
Old title:
Will Trump End the Israel-Hamas War Within 100 days of Taking Office? [Polymarket]
New title:
Will the Israel-Hamas War End Within 100 days of Trump Taking Office? [Polymarket]
See also:
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If there is another ceasefire will it have resolved twice
@Pjfkh Yeah, I think the issue is that the title says "Will the ... war end" but the resolution requirements were "ceasefire announced by both parties" there wasn't even a condition in there for if it's announced but they keep shooting each other on day one. Closing only required that it was announced on official channels by both parties and was indicative
I remember modifying the name 3 times and it reverts back. WHAT (edit: wrong)
wait no that was the russia ukraine one (edit: and i didn't change this one at the same time because since this one is a more proper clone of the polymarket market it seemed like it ought to actually have the same title too but idk if that's justified hmmm)
@Bayesian Still has the second problem: it includes the time before he takes office, so if Biden ended it tomorrow it would resolve Yes.
@Bayesian Most humans would interpret the phrase to refer to the 100 days following his taking office, not also the days before. Like when people refer to JFK's "first hundred days" they don't mean before his inauguration.
@Panfilo Maybe. How would you phrase it concisely to make it clear it’s 100 days away from the inauguration day in either direction (past or future)?
@Bayesian "Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire by April 30th?" And then have time/zone and the details in the description like with most similar markets. Notably the market it's based on also isn't about an end to the war, it's just another medium-length ceasefire market, so saying it's about the war ending is also misleading.