@Bayesian all remaining resolve NO

@Bayesian thanks biden

I refuse to buy No on any answer.

I guess I'm a little surprised how high 3000-5000 are trading. What situations do traders think would result in a user spike 50% larger than our previous best user spikes?

One concern I have is that buying the low DAU ones down is betting on manifold not growing and if it doesn't grow it will die and the mana will not be worth anything 😟, but also hmm, I think a 2x growth is somewhat plausible within the year? not sure though

@Eliza My concern is that for various big event peaks, they've all topped out around the same level. So if you just have another one of the past events, it's probably not going to double. Something different needs to happen to double.

@Eliza elections or sports or ..? some other community getting sucked in? or a combination of the above, or really hyped world events that put a spotlight on manifold. you're right though, double is probably tougher than i was imagining

@Eliza I bet on that range because the largest spike (back in August) doubled the number of active users from 900 to over 2000. The baseline number of active users has increased to 1700ish since, so another spike like that should put it in the 3000-4000 range, which is why I have that range around 50%.

I think the difference in our expectations is that I think we haven’t had a good spike in a while. They seem to top out at 2k, but I believe that’s just by chance. I think recent spikes are smaller because the events behind them were worse at bringing in users, not because there’s a hard cap on number of weekly active users around 2k. Within the year, at least one big thing should happen that gives significant growth, and Manifold is actively trying to make these happen more frequently, so I’m optimistic