see tweet:
Resolves to my personal opinion, or that of trusted manifold users if my opinion seems controversial at that time.
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@pietrokc was this prediction falsified? I haven't seen conclusive evidence either way. E.g. this review found similar performance in the few studies that compared AI systems and clinicians, though the authors raised some data quality issues that make me believe the literature may be biased towards hyping AI (unsurprisingly).
@JavierPrieto I mean generally you don't prove a negative, you prove the affirmative. And I definitely think it would be very hard to make the case human forecasting has been made obsolete already
@jacksonpolack Would prefer on one of the other markets which have a bit more specific resolution criteria