I believe this judgement is not controversial, But I welcome anyone to bring forth their case for a YES resolution

https://x.com/danhendrycks/status/1763097927017488523?s=46

@BionicD0LPH1N

Summary: no

@BionicD0LPH1N This is still an incredible improvement. Damn, better than I'd thought.

I'm old enough to remember 2016, when we were supposed to stop training radiologists because they were gonna be replaceable by AI in 2-3y.

@pietrokc was this prediction falsified? I haven't seen conclusive evidence either way. E.g. this review found similar performance in the few studies that compared AI systems and clinicians, though the authors raised some data quality issues that make me believe the literature may be biased towards hyping AI (unsurprisingly).

@JavierPrieto I mean generally you don't prove a negative, you prove the affirmative. And I definitely think it would be very hard to make the case human forecasting has been made obsolete already

I'll take a lot more at that price eli!

@jacksonpolack Would prefer on one of the other markets which have a bit more specific resolution criteria

Big NO limits placed if anyone wants to buy YES.