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Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 5 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?
21
Ṁ1kṀ738
Mar 31
70%
chance

Opus 4.1 was for ~all purposes bested by sonnet 4.5 on release. Will the same be true of opus 4.5, upon sonnet 5’s release, for power users who don't concern themselves with the model cost to any significant degree?

  • Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market specifically refers to Sonnet 5 only (not 4..6, 4.7, 4.75, or other version numbers)

    • If Sonnet 5 is not the next Anthropic release, resolves N/A

    • If Sonnet 5 is released after March 2026, resolves N/A

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@bens want to bet more at 68%

bought Ṁ10 NO

> balance of 2 billion bananas

> all his markets have 100 liqudiity

got rich by being more wasteful

What did he mean by this

ok added 900M

“for power users who don't concern themselves with the model cost to any significant degree?”

Hmmmm this feels a little subjective, but I know what you mean.

i know many a person that would pay for max 20x even if it was 3x the price. I roughly mean that kind of person

@Bayesian Right, the people who would care about costs would be the ones more likely to say, “Opus 4.5 is better, but I use Sonnet 5.0 more often because of the price point.”

But roughly speaking you want to know if Sonnet 5.0 overall is better even if Opus 4.5 were the same price as Sonnet?

@SorenJ yeah that's correct

opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 55% order

i believe

@Bayesian in retrospect I feel like I should have bet a lot of mana on the next model release being Claude 5 based on the other stuff I believed

@BenAybar in this house we encourage BOLDNESS

@Bayesian did you move into a new house recently?

@jim no but i changed the house rules

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