Rumor has it that OpenAI is sitting on two important models:

1) Strawberry (formerly Q*), which does multi-step reasoning

2) GPT-5

If both are announced before march 2025, will GPT-5 come first? If both are not announced, the market will resolve N/A. Changes to their names, as long as the models in question are clearly the ones described, will not affect this market. If both get announced in the same sentence, or are actually the same model, resolves 50/50

Rumor that inspired this market:

People are murmuring that GPT-5 sometime in Sept-Oct, and this multi-step reasoning/L2 stuff in November

• Update 2025-02-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification:

  • The market cannot resolve to GPT-5 if Strawberry is announced before GPT-5.

  • If GPT-5 is not released before March 2025, the market will resolve as N/A.

• Update 2025-02-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on GPT-5 Timing:

  • The event that counts for GPT-5 is its announcement, not its release.

  • If GPT-5 is not announced before March 2025, the market will resolve as N/A.

  • The market cannot resolve to GPT-5 if Strawberry is announced before GPT-5.