What will be true of OpenAI’s open-weight model?

1.4kṀ13k

resolved Nov 4

Resolved

N/A

better than o3-mini on FrontierMath (with tools)

Resolved

Uses Beyer Teacher/Student distillation ala Gemma 3

Resolved

Gets 1400+ Elo on lmarena.ai

Resolved

Is at least a Vision-Language Model (ala PaliGemma)

Resolved

Is at least an Image-Language Model (ala JanusPro or 4o)

Resolved

The model is accessible to all users on the main chatgpt site

Resolved

A base model is made accessible

Resolved

YES

Is a reasoning model

Resolved

released in the month of July 2025

Resolved

released in the month of June 2025

Resolved

my friend Andromeda (who knows ab ai) thinks it unveils an impressive new architecture

Resolved

At least 300B parameters

Resolved

released in September, October, November, or December 2025

Resolved

At least 120B Parameters

Resolved

YES

At least 70B parameters

Resolved

YES

Uses Mixture of Experts

Resolved

YES

At least 30B parameters

Resolved

YES

An instruct model is made accessible

Resolved

YES

At least 20B Parameters

Resolved

YES

MIT or Apache license

Context:

Feel free to add your own answers. If an answer is unclear you are welcome to ask for clarification from both me and the person who submitted the answer.

Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding an answer that the model will be 120B:
- The creator has indicated this will likely resolve based on the actual number of weights/parameters.
- If a model is named something like 'gpt-oss-120B' but does not technically have 120 billion weights, this answer would likely resolve to NO.

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bought Ṁ2 YES

hasn't been evaluated on FrontierMath. If it is in the future ping me and i'll reresolve

whether it's 120B or not is kinda cursed tbh. Like there isn't 120B weights so probably NO, but it's literally called gpt-oss-120B

@Bayesian oh shit you're right it's 117B 🤦

"reasoning model" will be judged with reference to OpenAI documentation.

bought Ṁ10 YES

What’s the difference between image/language and vision/language?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@KJW_01294 I think image/language generates images whereas vision/language only takes them as input

I've chosen to bet on the market that references me, but assert that I will be truthful in my evaluation of it. To help others, I would have said no to Gemma 2/3, yes to PaliGemma, yes to DeepSeek-MoE, but no to DeepSeek V3 and DeepSeek R1