What will be true of OpenAI’s open-weight model?
24
1.3kṀ3307
Dec 31
34%
released in September, October, November, or December 2025
34%
released in the month of August 2025
34%
released in the month of July 2025
17%
released in the month of June 2025
96%
Is a reasoning model
6%
Is at least an Image-Language Model (ala JanusPro or 4o)
73%
Is at least a Vision-Language Model (ala PaliGemma)
73%
Uses Beyer Teacher/Student distillation ala Gemma 3
30%
my friend @soaffine (who knows ab ai) thinks it unveils an impressive new architecture
86%
An instruct model is made accessible
15%
A base model is made accessible
19%
The model is accessible to all users on the main chatgpt site
20%
Gets 1400+ Elo on lmarena.ai
14%
At least 300B parameters
24%
At least 70B parameters
78%
At least 30B parameters
72%
better than o3-mini on FrontierMath (with tools)
33%
Uses Mixture of Experts
67%
MIT or Apache license

Context:

Feel free to add your own answers. If an answer is unclear you are welcome to ask for clarification from both me and the person who submitted the answer.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy