What will be true of OpenAI’s open-weight model?

1.2kṀ2497

Dec 31

95%

Is a reasoning model

38%

Is at least an Image-Language Model (ala JanusPro or 4o)

98.8%

Is at least a Vision-Language Model (ala PaliGemma)

73%

Uses Beyer Teacher/Student distillation ala Gemma 3

30%

my friend @soaffine (who knows ab ai) thinks it unveils an impressive new architecture

86%

An instruct model is made accessible

14%

A base model is made accessible

31%

The model is accessible to all users on the main chatgpt site

17%

Gets 1400+ Elo on lmarena.ai

16%

At least 300B parameters

21%

At least 70B parameters

72%

At least 30B parameters

72%

better than o3-mini on FrontierMath (with tools)

20%

Uses Mixture of Experts

53%

MIT or Apache license

Context:

Feel free to add your own answers. If an answer is unclear you are welcome to ask for clarification from both me and the person who submitted the answer.

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"reasoning model" will be judged with reference to OpenAI documentation.

bought Ṁ10 YES

What’s the difference between image/language and vision/language?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@KJW_01294 I think image/language generates images whereas vision/language only takes them as input

I've chosen to bet on the market that references me, but assert that I will be truthful in my evaluation of it. To help others, I would have said no to Gemma 2/3, yes to PaliGemma, yes to DeepSeek-MoE, but no to DeepSeek V3 and DeepSeek R1