Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date
14
Ṁ1kṀ17k
resolved Oct 12
Resolved
NO
Before 2026-10-01
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-10-16
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-11-01
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-11-16
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-12-01
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-12-16

This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Watermelon'. Any name under which this model is ultimately released — whether 'Watermelon', 'Muse Spark 2', or another name — will count, as long as it is generally understood to be the model currently being developed under that codename.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...] (this market)

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ238
2Ṁ159
3Ṁ136
4Ṁ121
5Ṁ84
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1,158 YES

@Bayesian resolves YES for all remainikng options except 10-01