A: China withdraws its 34% tariff increase by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, as per Trump's tweet
B: The United States imposes additional tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th, as per Trump's tweet
The 4 options represent A&B, ~A&B, A&~B, ~A&~B
clarification:
Tariffs must be not only announced but must actually come into effect.
They must be effective on April 9th, 2025.
Update 2025-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Effective Date Clarification
Tariffs must be in effect by Wednesday, April 9, 2025.
If tariffs are implemented on April 8 but are removed by April 9, the requirement will not be met (the tweet will be deemed false).
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People are also trading
@Bayesian For the additional tariffs on China, do they just have to be announced or do they need to come into effect? What if Trump announces them and then backs down before they come into effect?
@Gabrielle hmmm i'll say the tariffs need to be effective (which i take to mean come into effect but maybe that's not what that usually means in which case i could change my mind?) on april 9th for it to count (ie for B to be true)
@Bayesian is it possible to modify the poll options for this or smth else to show this, that’s a very important condition
@EthanKuntz I've added "by wednesday" to each option, hopefully that makes it clear. technically if he puts them on on april 8 and removes them for april 9th that would make the claim in his tweet false so the market would resolve against the tweet being true which is mostly what this market intends to do. but that seems unlikely enough and I'm not sure what would work better (and the space in market answers is limited)