Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date
24
Ṁ1kṀ15k
resolved Oct 12
Resolved
NO
Before 2026-09-21
Resolved
NO
Before 2026-10-01
Resolved
NO
Before 2026-10-11
Resolved
N/A
Before 2026-10-21
Resolved
N/A
Before 2026-11-01
Resolved
N/A
Before 2026-11-16
Resolved
N/A
Before 2026-12-01

The '+' means any version at or above 1.4 counts: if Meta skips 1.4 and releases Muse Spark 1.5 or Muse Spark 2, that still counts for the purpose of this market. Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Muse Spark 1.4, will also count.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...]

[loading...] (this market)

[loading...]

  • Update 2026-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Watermelon counts for the purposes of this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ126
2Ṁ106
3Ṁ57
4Ṁ45
5Ṁ27
Sort by:

Why N/A I don't get it?? @Bayesian

bought Ṁ20 NO

This is like calling a fable 1.0 release a opus 5.0+ release lol Icant

that's valid tbh hmmm

I don't think this counts. It's not a muse spark model, and this model is not generally expected to be called muse spark 1.4 as described in the market description. There likely will be new upcoming iterations of muse spark

@Mochi why is it not generally expected to be called muse spark 1.4?

it's internally watermelon or wtv, but is just a new iteration of their ai model lineup? ig it is named like a new model vamily

@Bayesian it's a new model family

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Bayesian watermelon counts for the purposes of this market?

bought Ṁ1,170 YES

@Bayesian ok it all resolves yes

bought Ṁ1,252 NO

@Bayesian resolves no