Trump favorite to win on [Prediction Market] day before election?
32
1kṀ9779
resolved Nov 5
Resolved
YES
kalshi.com (https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections)
Resolved
YES
polymarket.com (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024)
Resolved
YES
predictit (https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election)
Resolved
YES
manifold.markets (https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election?play=false)

Politics
US Politics
Trump
2024 US Presidential Election
Kamala Harris
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@Bayesian i see 54% on manifold at 12:00 EST

@vibhav i saw exactly 50%. hmmmm

@Bayesian it shows 50 on the regular market and 54 on sweepstakes. you linked the sweepstakes market in the option. not sure which you wanna use.

@vibhav ah, if the sweepstakes option was at 54 then it would resolve YES! good point, i'll doublecheck

you are right, thanks for pointing that out.

@Bayesian based on odds midnight Nov 5 EST?

@Kraalnaxx Odds in a minute yeah

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@Bayesian YES on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt I think. Don't know how you'll deal w/ Manifold.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Should I add metaculus even though it's not a prediction market? Hmmm

Also feel free to propose other PMs

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