By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Will AI (large language models) collapse by may 2026?

By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?

Will AI wipe out Manifold by 2030?

Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?