ARC-AGI-2 Top Score in 2025
29
1.1kṀ12kDec 31
41.5 %
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
0.2%
0 - 10%
4%
10 - 20%
23%
20 - 30%
33%
30 - 40%
14%
40 - 50%
9%
50 - 60%
7%
60 - 70%
6%
70 - 80%
1.9%
80 - 90%
1.6%
90 - 100%
This market resolves according to the score of the submission that receives the Top Score Prize ($75k) in 2025.
https://arcprize.org/blog/announcing-arc-agi-2-and-arc-prize-2025
In case the top score is in between two buckets, the market will resolve to the higher range. For example, if the top score is 50%, the market would resolve YES to 50 - 60%.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?
13% chance
ARC-AGI-2 Top Score >=50% in 2025?
30% chance
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028
25% chance
Top score on codeforces by an AI model at the end of 2025
Will a major lab officially declare AGI before the end of 2025?
9% chance
Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025?
99% chance
By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?
Who will lead the AGI race end of 2025?
Most successful approach in 2025 ARC Prize competition
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
31% chance