What will be the first State Mentioned at the VP Debate?
Standard
63
Ṁ21k
resolved Oct 2
100%98.4%
Minnesota
0.2%
New York
0.3%
Ohio
0.2%
Pennsylvania
0.2%
California
0.2%
Georgia
0.1%
Wisconsin
0.1%
Arizona
0.1%
Michigan
0.1%
Nevada

Moderators also count.

Only the listed states counts. (there will be no more states added)

If no state of this list is mentioned this market resolves to N/A

If there is no debate before the end of October 2024 this Market resolves to N/A

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bought Ṁ2,000 Minnesota YES

"Minnesota's Democratic Governor, Tim Walz" - moderator, before the debate begins.

@solomonster really i should say during intros. given the "Moderators also count." I would say the debate had begun with their intros.

"Maine to Texas"?

It might end up being Nebraska (I can’t add that answer). That was the first state Walz mentioned in his DNC speech (he was born there)

bought Ṁ20 New York YES

If someone says "New York City", does that count as saying "New York"?

@PeterF @mods do you think that should count?

like how Georgia (the country) would not count

@nikki okay, I also think it shouldn't count. So @PeterF no it doesn't count

@PeterF but NYC name is New York and it's in New York, the city is just added to distinguish it from the state.

I'd lean towards it counting otherwise it might be a judgment question like if they say "Mayor of New York" referring to Eric Adams or "In New York" (referring to Trump charges) and it could be ambiguous

i feel like i would've gone with YES but it's up to base, and he already clarified it as no. I think a norm where clarifications are generally initially tentative would be better but the current norm is that they're immediately binding. It doesn't matter though, prop bets like these are for fun and any clarification is fin

a vs. variant