François Chollet to declare o3 as AGI before May 2025?
14
Ṁ1kṀ10kresolved Apr 30
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
François Chollet, creator of the ARC-AGI benchmark, has stated that passing ARC-AGI does not equate to achieving AGI. Market resolves YES if Chollet makes a public statement (Twitter, blog post, interview, etc.) declaring that o3 is an AGI.
Note: this market was suggested by Manifold AI as a clearly-defined market in response to the prompt: "Will o3 be historically considered one of the first AGIs?"
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ377 | |
| 2 | Ṁ144 | |
| 3 | Ṁ126 | |
| 4 | Ṁ62 | |
| 5 | Ṁ35 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?
29% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?
19% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
30% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
4% chance
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2026?
2% chance
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2031?
59% chance
Will we get AGI before 2033?
46% chance
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?
35% chance
Will we get AGI before 2034?
50% chance