Will Thierry Baudet convert to Islam before the end of 2025?
Will Thierry Baudet convert to Islam before the end of 2025?
6
100Ṁ470Dec 31
3%
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Thierry Baudet is a Dutch politician and leader of the right-wing populist party Forum for Democracy (FvD), known for his provocative views on nationalism and immigration. Despite initial success, his party lost all its seats in the European Parliament in 2024. Baudet has recently faced criticism for making antisemitic remarks, furthering his controversial image.
Will resolve to YES if Thierry Baudet publicly converts to islam before then end of 2025.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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