Elon Musk keeps hinting that Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX, public on Nasdaq since June 12, 2026) could combine. On Tesla's Q2 2026 earnings call he cited growing "overlap" but said "we can't talk about combining companies... it's got to be done with the appropriate process." At the All-In Summit in September 2026 he said "who can imagine what action one might take." As of early October 2026, neither company has disclosed a merger agreement, a special committee, terms, or an S-4 registration. Tesla's Q3 2026 earnings call is scheduled for October 21, 2026. Will the hints become official before year end? Resolves YES if, between market creation and 11:59 PM US Eastern Time on December 31, 2026 (the resolution deadline, 2026-12-31), Tesla, Inc. and/or SpaceX officially announce any one of the following: (a) a definitive agreement (signed merger agreement or similar) to combine Tesla and SpaceX in any structure, such as Tesla acquiring SpaceX, SpaceX acquiring Tesla, or both combining under a new parent company, (b) a non binding proposal, letter of intent, or term sheet for such a combination that either company has formally disclosed, or (c) that either company's board has formed a special committee (or similar independent committee) to evaluate a Tesla-SpaceX combination, or that the companies are in formal merger negotiations. What counts as an official announcement: a press release from Tesla or SpaceX (including on ir.tesla.com or SpaceX's investor relations site), an SEC filing by either company on EDGAR (for example an 8-K, Form 425, S-4, or Schedule 13D amendment), or a clear and explicit confirmation by Elon Musk or another named Tesla or SpaceX executive on an official company channel, including the October 21, 2026 Tesla Q3 earnings call. The confirmation must state that one of (a), (b), or (c) exists. Speculation, jokes, or statements like "we'll see," "lots of collaboration," or "can't comment" do not count. What does NOT count: hints or vague remarks by Musk (on X, on stage, or on earnings calls), media reports based on anonymous sources with no company confirmation, prediction market prices or analyst forecasts, and deals that stop short of combining the two companies, such as the Terafab chip fab joint venture, supply or service contracts, cross investments (for example Tesla's xAI/SpaceX related stakes), or asset or licensing deals. Resolves NO if no qualifying announcement happens by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. An announcement made by the deadline counts even if the deal is later called off. The market may resolve YES early if a qualifying announcement occurs. Otherwise it resolves after the deadline once EDGAR and both companies' press releases have been checked.