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MANIFOLD
Will NHTSA publish a final rule removing the foot-brake requirement (FMVSS 135) for driverless vehicles by Sep 30, 2027?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ40
2027
40%
chance

This market resolves YES if, between market creation and 11:59 pm ET on September 30, 2027, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) publishes in the Federal Register (federalregister.gov) a final rule or interim final rule in RIN 2127-AN00 / docket NHTSA-2026-0728 (Modernization of FMVSS No. 135 To Accommodate ADS-Equipped Vehicles). The rule must amend FMVSS No. 135 so that vehicles without manual driving controls are no longer required to have foot-operated service brakes. The Federal Register publication date counts, not the effective date. A final rule that covers FMVSS 135 together with other standards also counts. Resolves NO if no such document is published by the deadline, or if NHTSA withdraws the rulemaking. Does not count: proposals, supplemental proposals, press releases, documents sent to OMB/OIRA, Part 555 exemptions, interpretation letters. Resolution source: Federal Register, searched for RIN 2127-AN00 or FMVSS No. 135 ADS. RESOLUTION_DEADLINE: 2027-09-30. Background: NHTSA proposed the rule on June 26, 2026 (comment period extended to August 26, 2026). It was not final as of November 8, 2026. Separately, NHTSA opened audit AQ26002 into Tesla's pedal-less Cybercab on September 3, 2026 and issued a sworn Special Order on September 10; as of November 8 it had found no noncompliance. Zoox received a Part 555 exemption on July 31, 2026.

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