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Will any US state require lidar or fog-performance tests for self-driving cars before 2028?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ5
2028
13%
chance

Full question: Will any US state enact a law or final regulation before Jan 1, 2028 requiring lidar (or non-camera ranging sensors) on autonomous vehicles, or mandating an AV low-visibility performance test (fog, heavy rain) that camera-only systems would fail? Resolves YES if, before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, any US state enacts a statute or a state agency adopts a final rule that (a) explicitly requires lidar or non-camera ranging sensors on vehicles operating under an AV permit or authorization, or (b) makes passing a defined low-visibility performance standard (fog, heavy rain, etc.) a condition of AV operation, where credible reporting or the rulemaking record says camera-only systems would fail it. Proposed bills, hearings, voluntary guidelines and city-level rules do not count. Federal rules do not count. Resolves NO otherwise. Ambiguous cases are resolved by the creator's judgment, with reasoning posted in the comments. I will not trade in this market.

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