Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by July 15, 2026, Hanoi implements a ban on gas-powered motorbikes within Ring Road 1. Official confirmation from the Hanoi People's Committee or other authoritative government sources will serve as the basis for resolution. If no such ban is enacted by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

On July 12, 2025, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh issued a directive mandating the elimination of fossil fuel-powered motorbikes within Hanoi's Ring Road 1 by July 1, 2026. This initiative aims to combat severe air pollution in the capital, which has frequently ranked among the most polluted cities globally. The directive also outlines plans to expand these restrictions to Ring Roads 2 and 3 by 2028 and 2030, respectively. (e.vnexpress.net)

Considerations

While the directive sets a clear timeline, the actual implementation may face challenges. Public skepticism exists regarding the feasibility of the ban, given the city's heavy reliance on motorbikes for daily transportation. Additionally, concerns have been raised about the adequacy of public transportation infrastructure to accommodate displaced motorbike users. (apnews.com)