Resolution criteria was met, but in the grand scheme of things I think it certainly did matter.

think about how catastrophically bad the debate was and it still failed to move things 3 points! extremely difficult in this era of polarization

A great lesson in why less specific criteria can sometimes produce better outcomes, I guess.

lol

It's pretty unlikely, but I imagine a disastrous press conference could lead to Biden dropping out.

Will probably resolve NO later today barring a Biden announcement that he's stepping down. I'm pretty sure this resolution does not align with the "spirit" of the question, as the debate was surely consequential, but those are the rules.

Agree. I'm unhappy (on a personal level) with the resolution, but you were clear on your criteria and resolved honestly.

Currently, the RCP Spread score has gone from+1.5 to +3.3, so there's still a little ways to go before this would resolve YES on the 11th. Of course, any dropout before that date would also result in an automatic YES resolution.

People should buy YES.

Clarification, if Biden leaves the ticket, this will default to YES.

But only if he does so within the two week timeframe, correct?

Yes.

RFK will shock the nation!

Nice market. Rarely do debates make an impact of something this large, except maybe by coincidence. However if RFK shows up, perhaps something might happen. Still very unlikely.

Maybe another market at 1% would be better.

@gpt_news_headlines ah yes but what if somebody calls someone else a stinky poo poo head? Have you considered that?

@gpt_news_headlines Shows up? Is he invited?